Southlake Carroll vs. North Crowley Prediction: Why the Film Points to a Dragons Upset

North Crowley opened the season by shutting out Aledo 26 to 0.

Southlake Carroll opened the season by falling behind Jenks 27 to 0 before storming back for a 34 to 33 win.

If the only thing you looked at was the scoreboard, Friday night’s matchup might appear simple.

After watching both games from start to finish, I do not think it is.

North Crowley has the better defense. The Panthers may have the better roster from top to bottom. Their physicality is real, their speed is real, and their front seven was the best unit I watched between the two Week 1 games.

But the film also showed a matchup Southlake Carroll is uniquely equipped to exploit.

DUB Sports Media is taking Southlake Carroll in the upset.

The Dragons travel to Crowley ISD Multi Purpose Stadium for a 7 p.m. kickoff Friday.

North Crowley’s Front Seven Can Wreck the Game

Any discussion about beating North Crowley has to begin with the defensive front.

Derrick Gleason, Antonio Smith and the Panthers’ front controlled Aledo’s offense. North Crowley took away the interior run game, split double teams and consistently changed the blocking picture for Aledo.

Even when Aledo tried wham blocks and trap blocking schemes to change the angles against North Crowley’s interior defenders, the Panthers continued to create penetration.

The result went beyond tackles for loss and sacks.

North Crowley eventually had Aledo quarterback Trey Williams feeling pressure before pressure actually arrived.

His eyes came down. He moved out of clean pockets. Throws that were available later in the progression never got made.

According to Dave Campbell’s Texas Football, North Crowley’s linebackers finished with eight sacks as a group, while Antonio Smith was named the Panthers’ defensive MVP after the win.

That is the first major problem for Southlake.

Carroll’s offensive tackles held up well against Jenks, but the interior offensive line had a much tougher night. Jenks split double teams, limited movement on duo and inside runs and created several first half protection problems.

If Gleason and Smith can collapse the pocket with only four rushers Friday, North Crowley may not have to expose its secondary by bringing constant pressure.

That would allow the Panthers to keep more defenders in coverage and make Southlake earn every yard.

What 26 to 0 Did Not Show

North Crowley’s secondary entered the season with an elite reputation.

Dave Campbell’s Texas Football ranked the Panthers as the top secondary among Class 6A and 5A programs entering the season, with players such as Elijajuan Houston, Jerry Outhouse Jr. and Braylen Cunningham helping headline the group.

The talent is obvious.

So is the speed.

But Aledo’s film revealed something the final score did not.

Receivers were getting open.

North Crowley mixed off coverage, man concepts, two man, Cover 6 and zero pressure while constantly rocking and rolling its safeties to change the quarterback’s picture before and after the snap.

The disguise was effective.

The coverage was not always clean.

There were repeated communication and eye discipline issues. Aledo created space with rub routes, running backs leaking into the flat, tight ends working up the rail and receivers attacking across defenders’ leverage.

The opportunities were there.

Aledo simply could not consistently capitalize.

According to MaxPreps, Williams finished the game completing only 45.5 percent of his passes, and North Crowley’s pressure increasingly affected the way Aledo operated at quarterback.

North Crowley did make an important second half adjustment. The Panthers leaned more into Cover 2, gave themselves a true flat defender and did a better job keeping routes in front of them.

That matters because this is not a defense surviving purely on talent.

North Crowley can adjust.

But Southlake presents a much different passing game.

Hudson Tomcheck Changes the Equation

Hudson Tomcheck finished his first start of the season 19 of 24 for 322 yards and two passing touchdowns.

He also scored twice with his legs as Carroll erased a 27 point deficit against Jenks.

The numbers are impressive.

The film was more important.

Tomcheck showed he can stand in against pressure, take contact and still deliver the football downfield. He protects the ball, gets it out quickly and does not automatically become reckless when the pocket starts collapsing.

That is exactly what North Crowley did not consistently face against Aledo.

Then there is the receiving room.

Brody Knowles caught seven passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns against Jenks.

Blake Gunter is coming off a 1,224 yard, 18 touchdown season and is committed to Cal.

Dez Bryant Jr. gives Carroll a physical option from the slot.

Easton Nied gives the Dragons a legitimate tight end presence.

Brooks Biggers adds another receiving threat out of the backfield.

That group matches up well with what North Crowley showed on film.

Southlake uses motion to change the distribution and create fast three and fast four looks.

Biggers can leave the backfield.

Bryant can work whips, slants and inside breaking routes.

Nied can get up the rail.

Carroll uses rub concepts and play action off outside zone.

Every one of those concepts forces North Crowley’s secondary to communicate.

That is the matchup I would attack.

Southlake does not need to spend the entire game asking Knowles to win fades and deep outbreakers against one of the fastest secondaries in Texas.

Attack leverage.

Attack the middle.

Make North Crowley tackle underneath.

Make the defensive backs communicate through motion and traffic.

Then, once the safeties begin driving downhill, take the shot.

Tomcheck has shown he can make it.

North Crowley Has an Answer Too

Southlake’s defense has its own serious vulnerability.

The Dragons’ defensive line played better against Jenks than the 263 rushing yards allowed would suggest.

The front often maintained its gaps and forced the ball east and west.

The bigger problem was behind it.

Southlake’s linebacker play was the weakest position group on DUB Sports Media’s film review.

Reads were late.

Flow was late.

The linebackers were not consistently getting downhill into the fit, and early in the game the secondary did not provide enough physical run support behind them.

That improved in the second half.

Carroll’s defensive backs began coming downhill more aggressively, the defensive front forced more runs horizontally and Jenks stopped finding the same clean vertical lanes.

But Jacob Torres creates a different problem.

Torres threw for 188 yards and three touchdowns against Aledo, including scoring throws of 55 yards to Damarion Mays and 65 yards to Kade Smith.

He also has the mobility to extend plays when the original concept is covered.

North Crowley’s traditional running game was not dominant against Aledo.

Kiante Ingram had only 19 rushing yards at halftime before finishing with 72 yards on 12 carries.

But against Southlake, the Panthers do not necessarily need to dominate the defensive line.

They need to block the front four long enough to make the linebackers tackle.

That is where duo, inside zone, Torres’ legs and the RPO package become dangerous.

If Southlake has to start bringing its safeties downhill to help the run, North Crowley can attack behind them with Mays, Kade Smith and its vertical passing game.

That is North Crowley’s clearest path.

Establish enough of the run to create conflict at the second level.

Then punish the conflict.

The Pick

This game comes down to two matchups.

Can North Crowley affect Hudson Tomcheck with four rushers?

And:

Can Southlake’s linebackers keep North Crowley from controlling early downs?

If North Crowley consistently collapses Southlake’s interior protection without blitzing, I think the Panthers win.

They can keep the safeties high, stay disciplined in coverage and eliminate many of the communication problems Aledo exposed.

But if Southlake keeps Tomcheck in manageable situations and gives him enough time to operate, I believe Carroll’s receivers can win.

Aledo already showed where the openings are.

Southlake has a better quarterback and a deeper receiving corps to capitalize on them.

North Crowley has the better defense.

North Crowley may have the better overall roster.

But football is about matchups, and after watching both Week 1 games, this one is significantly closer than the final scores suggest.

DUB Sports Media Prediction: Southlake Carroll over North Crowley.

The 26 to 0 scoreboard made North Crowley look nearly impossible to solve.

The film says otherwise.